"From the Dictatorial Rule by One Party to That by One Individual in Iraq: The Mechanism of the Transition and Its Impact on the Decision-Making Process"
Keiko SAKAI (Institute of Developing Economies)

The recent trend of Iraqi domestic politics is characterized by the transition from the dictatorial rule by one party (the Baath Party) in the 1970s to that by one individual (President Saddam Husayn) since the 1980s. The dictatorial rule by the Baath Party in the 1970s was established to counterbalance the dominant Communist Party, the military, and the loyalty based on a shared territorial bond among the party leaders. During the period of transition to the dictatorial rule by President Saddam Husayn from the 1980s on, we have witnessed changes in both ideology and organization. The ideological changes have been the introduction of "democratic" procedures to offset the influence of the party leaders, the departure from socialist economic policy, the advocacy of Iraqi (not Arab) nationalism, and the disapproval of secularism and Islamic fundamentalism. And the organizational change has been the revival of "tribalistic" recruitment and promotion in place of hierarchical one within the party.

How has this domestic political shift shaped Iraq's expansionist and hegemonic foreign policy? Several answers are in order. First, its foreign policy derives from the "ideology as a political tool" to govern the public. Second, its foreign policy lacks consistency due to the coexistence of the dictatorial rule by the party and the dictatorial rule by the president. Third, its policy-making stance is influenced by the nature of the relationship between the party and the president. And this relationship, either confrontational or cooperative, in turn, is not predictable (since which relationship they are in depends on the situation).