REPORT　By　Nargis Kassenova
(Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University)

The report is based on the lecture given by Anara Tabyshalieva on 26 February 2000 and her publication
A. Tabyshalieva The Challenge of Regional Cooperation in Central Asia. Preventing Ethnic Conflict in the Ferghana Valley (Peaceworks, United States Institute of Peace, 1999).

Those who are more or less familiar with the region of Central Asia would immediately recognize the urgency of the topic of the lecture. The Ferghana valley formed by the intersecting territories of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is considered to be one of the most explosive areas in the post-Soviet space.

In June of both 1989 and 1990 it saw two violent eruptions (clashes between Uzbeks and Meshketinian Turks in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyz-Uzbek riots in Kyrgyzstan) that shook the belief in the special "internationalism" of the Soviet people.

A decade later the factors that caused the bloody conflicts are still there, and it won't be an exaggeration to say that the situation has grown from bad to worse. The economic conditions are worsening, while the population is growing.

Thus, the rapidly growing unemployment that leads to ethnic and religious tensions and to the general marginalization of the population. Governments unable to cooperate and to provide sustainable development for the region, instead introduce highly unpopular measures such as strengthening the borders, which separate families and make the already difficult life of the local people even more difficult.

The speaker paid a special attention to the demographic situation in the Ferghana valley. The valley is the most densely populated area in Central Asia. 20 percent of the population of Central Asia (or about 10-12 million) live in what constitutes only 5 percent of its territory. In the Andijan region of Uzbekistan it is more than 450 people per square kilometer. In the Ferghana district the corresponding figure is 338; in Namangan, 215.

Fertility rates are high. In some areas of the valley, nearly 40-50 percent of the population is under the age of 16. The acute population density contributed to ethnic clashes in 1989 and 1990, and young people were among the most active participants in the violence.

Another alarming tendency is the virtual disappearance of secular schools against the background of a growing number of mosques throughout the region. For example, in Uzbekistan's Namangan region, the ratio between mosques and schools is 13 to 1.

While the governments are not showing a due level of cooperation in dealing with the problems of the valley, 'international cooperation' is flourishing in drug trafficking. The Silk Road is turning into the Drug Route, from Afghanistan to Russia and Western Europe. Although Central Asia has traditionally been a drug-producing region, increasing corruption and drug-trafficking have reached unprecedented dimensions, particularly in the Ferghana Valley.

During severe downturns in the region's economy, more and more people turn to growing opium poppies and cannabis. The growing powers of the "mafia network" mean that criminals are increasing their influence in political and economic decision-making throughout the region. The accumulation of revenue and weapons from the operation of these criminal networks could be a serious threat to ethnic stability in the Ferghana valley.

In the opinion of A.Tabyshalieva, Central Asian states are unable to cope with the problem by themselves, they need help from the international community.

To continue the topic of regional cooperation, she mentioned one of the main obstacle, and that is lack of common communication space. One of the many legacies of the past is that the mainstream of information about Central Asian states comes mainly from Moscow; there are practically no media outlets that disseminate news about political, social, and economic developments in the Central Asian region.

In addition, governments themselves often try to control information and to discourage public or scholarly discussion of most troublesome problems. Thus, there was practically no serious public discussions about the bloody clashes of 1989 and 1990. The Batken crisis (when several people, including four Japanese geologists were taken hostage) didn't receive adequate coverage as well.

The Batken crisis revealed two major problems: inability of local armies to cope even with small-scale crises, and lack of coordination between Central Asian states when it comes to regional security issues. The negotiation process was neglected due to the Uzbek pressure, and the military operations were highly inefficient. Civilians were fleeing not from guerillas, but from Uzbek bombs.

Thus, regional security vacuum was revealed in Central Asia. But how to fill this vacuum? According to the speaker, Russian military presence can only destabilize the situation in the region. The Russian army is too corrupt and demoralized to add any stability to the region, and would rather contribute to the general corruption, including illegal drugs and weapons trafficking. In addition Russian policies in Afghanistan can seriously undermine Central Asian regional stability.

To counterbalance Russian hegemony in the region, A. Tabyshalieva emphasizes the importance of heavier involvement of other international actors (including Japan) in conflict prevention in the region.

She believes, donor-countries can use economic leverage to influence the policies of aid-addicted Central Asian states. Especially, it concerns Uzbekistan.

The lecture was followed by an interesting discussion concerning aid and regional security.